Roll-Up Thesis · The Evidence

The size premium is real — and every number here is someone else's.

What a buyer pays for an MSP climbs with scale. Grow the earnings and the multiple moves up with them — that compounding is the entire logic of the roll-up. Below is the proof, drawn from five independent 2024–2026 M&A sources and cited in full.

~55%
Value lift from consolidation alone, before any growth
8.9x
Median MSP deal multiple across ~120 deals (Aventis)
466
MSP deals closed in 2025, up ~20% YoY (M&A Signal)
$400B+
PE dry powder targeting tech services (Alternative Payments)
The Trend, From Five Independent Sources

The multiple rises with scale.

EV/EBITDA multiple against combined EBITDA scale. The shaded band is the observed range; the line is the midpoint. Every band sits higher and wider than the one to its left.

0x 4x 8x 12x 16x 4–5x 6–8x 8–10x 11–14x Sub-scale Combined target Grown Platform <$0.5M EBITDA ~$1M EBITDA $2–3M EBITDA $5M+ EBITDA EV / EBITDA multiple
Bands synthesize five 2024–2026 sources (Aventis Advisors, CT Acquisitions, Eight-M, Alternative Payments, M&A Signal). Ranges reflect deal quality, not just size. Figures are EV/EBITDA except the smallest tier, where small shops often trade on SDE.
The Same Story, Source By Source

Shown in full, so it can be examined.

Different firms, different methods, one direction. Nothing here is our data — each row is a published figure you can open and check for yourself.

Source (2024–2026)Small / sub-scaleMid ($1–3M EBITDA)Platform ($5M+ EBITDA)
Alternative Payments~4x (<$1M EBITDA)6–8x12–14x
M&A Signal4–6x (<$0.5M)7–9x9–13x+
CT Acquisitions3–7x SDE (<$1M rev)6–11x9–13.5x
Eight-M (Feb 2026)3–5x (<$3M rev)6–9x8–12x+
Aventis (by deal size)5.2x (<$5M EV)6.8–8.9x9.9–11.2x

Solganick Q3 2025, cited by Eight-M: add-ons ~5–8x versus platforms near ~11x. Aventis median across ~120 deals: 8.9x. CT Acquisitions small-MSP SDE multiples are MRR-share dependent (≈3.4x at <50% MRR, rising to ≈5.4x at 70%+).

What It Means For Three MSPs Combining

The same earnings, worth more together.

Illustrative, using band midpoints. The point is the shape, not the decimals — the real number depends on recurring revenue and clean books.

ScenarioCombined EBITDAMultipleEnterprise value
Three sub-scale shops sold separately~$1.0M (≈$0.33M each)~4.5x~$4.5M
Combined into one clean platform$1.0M~7x~$7.0M
Grown platform (organic + 4th MSP)$2.0M~9x~$18M
Scaled platform$3.0M~10x~$30M

The arbitrage, before any growth. The same $1M of earnings is worth about $4.5M as three separate shops and about $7M as one clean platform — roughly a 55% lift from consolidation alone. As EBITDA grows past that, the multiple climbs with it, so value compounds instead of merely adding. Two levers, pulling the same direction.

Honest Caveat

Size opens the door.
Quality decides the room.

Every source says the same thing in different words. Scale gets you into the higher band. Where you land inside it is earned.

Recurring revenue.

Buyers reward 80%+ recurring (MRR) revenue — the sources tie their top platform multiples directly to it. Mixed break-fix and project revenue caps the multiple regardless of size.

Retention and concentration.

Churn under control and no single client above ~25% of revenue. High concentration is a discount every time.

Clean, provable books.

A single system with a disciplined close is what survives a buyer's quality-of-earnings review. This is exactly what the standardization program builds.

Depth.

Cybersecurity and vertical specialization pull toward the top of the band.

This is the useful part. The standardization work is not overhead on the way to the exit — it is the thing that moves you from the bottom of a band to the top, and from one band to the next. Aggregation gets the EBITDA. Standardization gets the multiple.

The Exit Market Is Active, Not Theoretical

Buyers are already competing for this tier.

These are the buyers a combined platform is built for: integrated roll-ups, decentralized holding companies, and vertical aggregators.

466
MSP M&A deals closed in 2025, up ~20% year over year (M&A Signal)
$400B+
PE dry powder targeting technology services (Alternative Payments)
$4.3B+
Disclosed MSP transaction value in 2025 (M&A Signal)
$5–15M
ARR "sweet spot" drawing the most competitive buyer processes (M&A Signal)
Sources

Every figure links back to its origin.

The valuation ranges above are published by independent M&A advisors and industry analysts. We've compiled and synthesized them here with full attribution — nothing is proprietary to JC Axis, and each source is one click away.

Compiled as evidence for the JC Axis consolidation thesis from publicly available third-party sources. Multiples are market observations and ranges, not a valuation of any specific business. Actual outcomes depend on recurring-revenue mix, retention, client concentration, and the quality of the combined financials. Figures were current as of the sources' 2024–2026 publication dates.

This is the arithmetic. Here's the plan.

The roll-up page walks through how the Axis Standard turns these market ranges into a real, defensible exit — and who it's built for.